Well what a great start to the NRL finals series, yes the games were great and we will get to them in a moment, but the true highlight was clearly ozsportsdude going 4 for 4 against the Spread in Week 1. Anyone who read this column in Week 1 and took my advice would have done very well for themselves. Not only did ozsportsdude correctly pick the 2 upsets, but in all 4 games I picked the teams to cover the spread, quite a proud day for this young website.
Now to the games, for all the failings of the current NRL management and overall leadership of the game, the sports still has the capacity to put on a great spectacle and Finals Week One was a prime example. Friday night, for those few who watched it (seriously just how many things got broken in the Channel Nine offices when the McIntyre system forced New Zealand v Gold Coast to be the marquee TV ratings game on Friday night) was a game that re-emphasised the primacy of the Half-Back position in the modern game. These two teams were evenly matched in every position across the field, with the Warriors probably stronger on the wings, but with Scott Prince at Half-Back the Titans were in control all night. His ability to force repeat sets with the kicking game was a major reason for their win. The replacement Full Back Zillman was probably man of the match, but it was Prince who won the game. It still frustrates me how often other Half-Backs think try on every 5th tackle option inside the 20 when repeat sets are so crucial in today's NRL. Prince is not one of those Half-Backs, he is without doubt the best exponent of the little grubber into the in goal that force line drop outs in the game today and his full repertoire of kicks was on full display Friday night. The result, Titans win and thanks to other results they now have a "home" final in 2 weeks time. (The reason home is in parentheses is because the NRL are forcing them to play it at Suncorp, which is madness, yeah they will get an extra 5000 or so by moving it, but rather than have a jam packed Gold Coast stadium, with stories about it being the hottest ticket in town filling the papers, instead the AFL will get to laugh, yet again, as the NRL only half fills a stadium for a Preliminary Final at Suncorp) 'NRL leadership, where shooting ourselves in the foot is an art-form'.
The Saturday games were the highlight of the weekend however.
Roosters-Titans, what can anyone who saw that game say except WOW!!!!.
That was Rugby League at its best.
The Tigers paid a massive penalty for not converting their early dominance into points. Gareth Ellis went over the Try Line 3 times but was denied each time. The 2nd one has me completely perplexed. Benji Marshall in a stunning display of selfishness threw a punch after playing the ball meaning that video review overturned the Ellis try. What was stunning about this was that in a game that went to Golden Point Benji seems to have gotten off Scott-free in the media for this. Now if this happened in the last minute I am sure there would have been more made of it, however the time does not matter, 6 points were taken off the board due to this petulant act, yet the Rugby League media has not said a word about it, I'm tipping that if it had been Willie Mason and not the media darling Marshall who had thrown the punch he would have spent the week being raked over the coals in the Sydney Press for it. This type of favoritism from the media is just hypocritical in the extreme.
Speaking of our culture, one thing that frustrated me on the weekend was the reaction to the call by Ray 'Rabbits' Warren. I am sure you have heard about it by now but I'll give you a quick re-cap. After Ellis had the 3rd Try taken off him, Rabbits exclaimed
"Gareth is going to want to go to the Gap after this, don't do it Gareth, don't go to Watson's Bay"
Now for those who don't know, The Gap is a place in Sydney that is well known as a suicide hot-spot. As soon as Rabbits said this, I thought of the switchboard at Channel 9 lighting up with indignant do-gooders over this. Well it obviously did, as Rabbits was forced to apologise during the call of the Sunday game. This type of thing drives me insane. Are we so vanilla as a society now that we can't even allow our commentators make flippant remarks like this without it turning into a chance for a bunch of people with no lives to kick up a stink about this stuff and get their stupid mugs on the TV. The letters written to both papers in Sydney showed their is a whole bunch of these people living in Sydney with too much time on their hands, here's a thought for these people, rather than taking time to express your indignation over harmless remarks by Rugby League commentators use that same energy to volunteer at a charity somewhere. These are the same people who will sue the council if their kids break their arms at the local park and cause them to be closed. We cannot let ourselves be shackled by these people and Rabbits should not have apologised. Anyway back to the game.
So the Roosters had nothing going in attack and the Tigers had a 13 point lead half way through the 2nd Half. Then it all changed and as has happened so often it was Todd Carney's individual brilliance that sparked the side. First he played a brilliant chip kick to himself before sending Anasta over in the corner, before crucially converting from the sideline. From then on the Roosters dominated and the last 10 minutes of the game was played entirely in the Tigers half of the field. When Pearce crossed to cut the lead to one it looked like Farah's first half field goal might prove crucial as the Roosters were nearly out time. Then the excitement started, after forcing a line drop out the Roosters lost the ball on Tackle 2 with 30 seconds left.
The other untold story of the week in the 'traditional media' is that it should clearly have been a penalty in front of the posts seeing as it was a Shoulder Charge that connected with the chin that caused the dropped ball by the Roosters. There was time for the video ref to intervene, but he lost the courage to act. Now whether video refs should be allowed to get involved in this situation is another debate, the point here is that if this had happened in the 13th minute of the game, there is no doubt the Roosters get a penalty in that situation, but with the situation of the game meaning a penalty would almost certainly give the Roosters the win, it was not awarded.
Then the Roosters won the ball from the scrum, which was again a criminal mental mistake by the Tigers and after some helter-skelter passing Anasta snapped the Field Goal to tie the game. In Golden Point there were many close misses before Kenny-Dowall got a great intercept and went the length of the field to keep the Roosters alive and send them into an enticing match up with Penrith this Saturday night.
Penrith lost their game on Saturday night for the very same reasons predicted here in the week one preview column. The cross field kick is nowhere near as effective in the Finals when teams are more switched on than it is during the regular season. This caught the Roosters out 2 years ago and it kind of ironic that the new look Roosters play a team that may fail for the same reasons that they themselves did back then. The Penrith vs Canberra game was just a good solid game of Rugby League, not overly exciting but sprinkled with enough good moments to keep you entertained. Campese looks like he is back to his best form and his ability to take on the line tormented the Panthers all night and with Monaghan defusing any cross field kicks on his side of the field Penrith slowly seemed to become more and more bereft of ideas as the game wore on. Canberra deserved their win and will provide a stern test for the West Tigers this week. The similarities between the 2010 Raiders and the 2009 Eels is striking, getting up in 9 out of 10 must win games entering the finals, playing an enterprising attacking brand of football, a superstar at the top of his game (Campese) a great bunch of Forwards paving the platform for the skill players to work off the back of as well as a confidence level that is building on a weekly basis. So what is the difference, well really there is only one, the media has decided that they are not as exciting as the Eels so you have to turn quite a few pages of the paper to find a story about them. I understand they are not a Sydney team and the Canberra Times probably gives them a good run, but seriously this team is the 2010 version of the Hayne led Eels, yet the Daily Telegraph spent most of the last 2 months of the season trying to tell us them same Eels were a chance to repeat their heroics from the previous season. Are they really that blinded by the story they want to write that they can't see the real story that's occurring right in front of them, sighs.
Manly v St George was as I predicted a boredom inducing snooze fest played in the middle third of the field. Also if St George wants to shake off a chokers tag I don't know if taking the 2 points through Penalty kicks rather than going for the Try to go from a 6-0 lead to 8 to 10 to 12 was really the sort of thing that screams to the rest of the competition "We Believe in Ourselves" Particularly as they were playing a Manly team decimated by injury. Now the number of try's they put on late when Manly knew time was against them and had clocked off made the scoreboard look good, but I can't imagine the 5 other teams left alive quaking in their boots after that performance.
So onto the Week 2 Picks.
Roosters (-5.5) over Panthers
Again the idiocy of the McIntyre system and the scheduling process is in full effect. Penrith has to go to Roosters home field, meaning the Roosters who finished 6th have played at their home stadium 2 weeks in a row in the Finals against the teams that finished 3rd and now 6th. The line itself seems strange to me, yes Penrith lost last week, but the score was close all the way and they did finish 4 places above the Roosters at the end of the season. Still I think the Tab has set a good line. If the line was more like 2.5 or 3.5 I would be much more confident picking the Roosters. Still I think they should cover, though it will be close. The major concern for the Bondi club is that they are quite short out wide, particularly with little Sam Perrit and the cross field kicks will trouble him. Still Brian Smith is a master tactician and I am sure he has some plans to deal with this issue, whether by moving Anasta one spot wider in situations where the cross-field kick to that side is an option or some other move that will provide support in the air for Sam.
Penrith actually match up quite well with the Roosters in most positions, Luke Lewis gives them the same flexibility by foot and with skillful ball playing that Anasta gives the Roosters. They have a big Front Row to take on Ryles and co and they have speed out wide. However, like Titans v Warriors last week, the Roosters have an advantage in the halves and that will prove crucial on Saturday night. Carney is in rare form right now and even with some media trouble makers trying to stir up a power war between Pearce and Carney during the week, asking Pearce if he sees himself as a 'sidekick' to Todd it is clear that Pearce and Carney are good mates and that rubbish will have no effect. Roosters to cover but the margin will be less than 13 points.
Tigers (+6.5) over Raiders
Now this line is insane. I think that Canberra might very well win this game, but to set the line higher than a converted Try is just madness. Just to recap, the Tigers were one Benji Marshall brain snap, or the successful execution of a Scrum feed away from being in a preliminary final. Now Benji is hurt, but there is no doubt he will play. Also has everyone forgotten that for 70 minutes last Saturday night the Tigers looked like the Premiers in waiting. This Tigers team is not like the team of the last 5 years, with Ellis setting the standard this forward pack is quite capable of getting involved in a knock down drag them out war of attrition. Then if it is a close game, Farah and Marshall are there to provide the piece of magic that leads to points. Again I am not necessarily tipping a Tigers win here, Canberra are a good side and with the McIntyre system awarding the 7th placed team a home final over the 3rd placed team they will have a fired up crowd cheering them home late on if it is tight.
Let me rant about the McIntyre atrocity, I mean system, one more time. The Tigers after finishing 3rd at the end of the regular season, if they were to lose this week would exit the finals without playing a home final, now i know last week was officially a home game for the Tigers but the facts are they played it at the Roosters home field and now they go to Canberra. Can't we at least agree that in Week 2 it is the team that finished the regular season higher on the ladder that hosts the final, not the week one winners. Seriously Canberra who scraped into the finals, then winning one game should not get to host the 3rd placed team just because the Tigers lost in week one. Why they won't just change to the AFL system is beyond me, for those who don't know how the AFL system works please do yourselves a favour and go and check it out, then please come back and explain to me just one way that the McIntyre system is better.
So the push for the perfect Finals tipping performance against the spread continues. I have to say these lines make it tough this week in the Roosters game but make it easy in the Tigers game, I was leaning towards tipping the Tigers anyway, but as soon as I saw they had a 6.5 start it became the easiest bet of the year. Come back next week to see eat those words.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Webber Monza Preview
One down One to go for Webber and Red Bull.
Spa and Monza were never going to be Red Bull friendly tracks, the Red Bull Renault engine has many good quality's particularly its great pick up and drive out of the corners. Red Bull are the first to admit however it lacks outright grunt and top speed. This was best shown in Qualifying at Spa where Webber was burned by the McLaren of Lewis Hamilton through the long straights of Sector One, where even the legendary Eau Rouge is taken flat by all cars now, making it for the purposes of arguments about power, a straight. But in the twisty sector 2, where downforce and aero efficiency are the key, both Webber and Vettel were supreme, amazing Webber ended up on Pole after Saturday, which though it had elements of luck with the changeable conditions messing up qualifying for the top teams, was achieved on a dry track and slicks.
During the race, Webber got off to what is sadly becoming his customary terrible start and settled into 6th place at the hair-pin turn one, then outfought Sutil coming out Eau Rouge, with what is also becoming a Webber tradition, the incredible overtaking move that is completely ignored by the commentators. So he settled into 5th as the changeable conditions intervened. This led to the other great fear for Webber fans, Christian Horner having a say in the outcome of the race with strategy calls. I have many concerns about Horner as a manager of the egos within the Red Bull team and his obvious favoritism of Vettel is frustrating not just due to the fact it exists but with the complete lack of skill with which he has handled the whole situation. However, these concerns pale into insignificance compared to my finger nail biting angst that occurs whenever a race becomes a strategy battle and it becomes possible that Horner's decisions will directly affect the outcome of the race.
So in conclusion, Webber faced a triple threat at Spa, Firstly a track that does not suit the car, Secondly the terrible start, Thirdly, the stomach churning prospect of Horner vs Whitmarsh strategy battle. In the end as we know Webber came out of this with a stunning 2nd place finish. Better yet, Vettel showed his impetuousness yet again this season, took Button out and ruined his own race, meaning that he fell 28 points behind his teammate in the World Championship and took Button out as well. This means that the 5 way World Championship battle entering Spa, became in all reality thanks to Alonso's failure a 2 way race between Hamilton and Webber. Neither McLaren or Red Bull have acknowledged this as yet, and a reverse result at Monza opens it up again, but as long as Webber finishes within a place of his teammate for the next 2 races Red Bull will have little choice but to put their eggs in the Webber basket.
So now we head to Monza, again another Engine Power/Top Speed track, unfortunately their is not twisty bit at Monza, just long straights, chicanes and a couple of hairpins. This is particularly troubling as not only does this put the Renault powered Red Bulls behind McLaren but at the same time creates a situation where the Ferrari's and even the Force India's could leapfrog the Red Bull's as well helping Hamilton increase is championship lead by more than just the 7-12 points that a McLaren/Red Bull top 4 would cause. There is a real chance Webber could be scrapping for 6 or 7 points this weekend.
Mind you, I felt the same way heading to Spa and it ended up being the best weekend for the Webber World Championship charge so far this season, thanks to the youthful stupidity of his teammate. Now lets just hope that Horner and the Red Bull ownership think of the best chance to get a World Title and not try to somehow jeopardise his chances to get the young German back in the game and keep the Austrian parent company happy. And yes, this is a real fear.
Spa and Monza were never going to be Red Bull friendly tracks, the Red Bull Renault engine has many good quality's particularly its great pick up and drive out of the corners. Red Bull are the first to admit however it lacks outright grunt and top speed. This was best shown in Qualifying at Spa where Webber was burned by the McLaren of Lewis Hamilton through the long straights of Sector One, where even the legendary Eau Rouge is taken flat by all cars now, making it for the purposes of arguments about power, a straight. But in the twisty sector 2, where downforce and aero efficiency are the key, both Webber and Vettel were supreme, amazing Webber ended up on Pole after Saturday, which though it had elements of luck with the changeable conditions messing up qualifying for the top teams, was achieved on a dry track and slicks.
During the race, Webber got off to what is sadly becoming his customary terrible start and settled into 6th place at the hair-pin turn one, then outfought Sutil coming out Eau Rouge, with what is also becoming a Webber tradition, the incredible overtaking move that is completely ignored by the commentators. So he settled into 5th as the changeable conditions intervened. This led to the other great fear for Webber fans, Christian Horner having a say in the outcome of the race with strategy calls. I have many concerns about Horner as a manager of the egos within the Red Bull team and his obvious favoritism of Vettel is frustrating not just due to the fact it exists but with the complete lack of skill with which he has handled the whole situation. However, these concerns pale into insignificance compared to my finger nail biting angst that occurs whenever a race becomes a strategy battle and it becomes possible that Horner's decisions will directly affect the outcome of the race.
So in conclusion, Webber faced a triple threat at Spa, Firstly a track that does not suit the car, Secondly the terrible start, Thirdly, the stomach churning prospect of Horner vs Whitmarsh strategy battle. In the end as we know Webber came out of this with a stunning 2nd place finish. Better yet, Vettel showed his impetuousness yet again this season, took Button out and ruined his own race, meaning that he fell 28 points behind his teammate in the World Championship and took Button out as well. This means that the 5 way World Championship battle entering Spa, became in all reality thanks to Alonso's failure a 2 way race between Hamilton and Webber. Neither McLaren or Red Bull have acknowledged this as yet, and a reverse result at Monza opens it up again, but as long as Webber finishes within a place of his teammate for the next 2 races Red Bull will have little choice but to put their eggs in the Webber basket.
So now we head to Monza, again another Engine Power/Top Speed track, unfortunately their is not twisty bit at Monza, just long straights, chicanes and a couple of hairpins. This is particularly troubling as not only does this put the Renault powered Red Bulls behind McLaren but at the same time creates a situation where the Ferrari's and even the Force India's could leapfrog the Red Bull's as well helping Hamilton increase is championship lead by more than just the 7-12 points that a McLaren/Red Bull top 4 would cause. There is a real chance Webber could be scrapping for 6 or 7 points this weekend.
Mind you, I felt the same way heading to Spa and it ended up being the best weekend for the Webber World Championship charge so far this season, thanks to the youthful stupidity of his teammate. Now lets just hope that Horner and the Red Bull ownership think of the best chance to get a World Title and not try to somehow jeopardise his chances to get the young German back in the game and keep the Austrian parent company happy. And yes, this is a real fear.
Sunday, September 5, 2010
NRL Finals Preview
Let the hype begin, the NRL finals are here.
Sit back and wait for the advertising campaign from the NRL extolling the even nature of the competition and the fact any of the 8 teams can win on the first weekend in October. Obviously the NRL will not talk about the driving force behind the leveling of talent, namely that everyone has been dragged down to a sub-optimal level under the restrictions of the hideously low salary cap. If you are an NRL fan who happened to catch some of the Challenge Cup games from the UK Super League you could not help but feel frustrated. Just in the 2 or 3 games I have seen late on Sundays recently I saw Danny Buderus, Thomas Leului, Chris Flannery, Matt King and Pat Richards. If you think they are washed up veterans who wouldn't have made a difference to the teams in the finals, then you truly are under the Gallop spell.
The Finals Match Ups
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Manly Sea Eagles
What a waste of a Sunday Afternoon game, when the lack of dew and the dry ball usually see us treated to a full expression of the players skills we instead get a game between the most boring team in the competition, Manly, playing the grind it out experts in St George. Seriously is there one thing that excites you about this Manly team, Tony Williams has his moments, but that's where it ends, even their Jerseys are boring. Even though on paper it appears that this is the perfect match up for the Dragons as Manly's middle third only style plays into the St George defensive grinding style there remain potential problems for the Dragons. All this week the talk about choking will start for St George, whilst Manly is a team that contains players who have not only won finals games, they have won the big one. Still if Manly can't win a potential must win game vs the bottom feeding Bulldogs I can't see them beating St George.
Prediction St George
Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders
This game is a game that could either be a dominant Penrith win or yet another 7 v 2 upset. It all boils down to the kick, if it comes off for the Panthers then they should get home easily but if you live by the kicking game then more often than not in big games you die by it. In an average regular season game the kicking game can succeed because it often relies on a bit of laziness in positioning or lack of desperation from the defending team, this laziness can happen in Rd 15 when the players are more worried about where they are getting their Stilnox for the post game Kings Cross atrocity but in the finals when players have just spent the whole week being told that every play matters the kicking game seems to lack impact. For proof of this see the Sydney Roosters in 2008, who like this Penrith team entered the finals scoring most of their tries from kicks and went out in straight sets. The lesson is that in finals you need to be able to create try's through ball movement and precision line running. This does not augur well for the Panthers, particularly as the Raiders are a team with Campese at Five-Eighth that can create try's through good football.
Prediction Raiders
Wests Tigers vs Sydney Roosters
This is shaping up as not only the game of the first week of the finals but maybe the highlight of the whole Finals series. What a shame it will happen on Saturday night, this is a game made for Sunday Afternoon. Benji's flick passes and Carney bullet like 30 metre passes are made for dry weather football. Instead the pressure of finals and the dewy conditions will take some of the potential flair out of the contest. Still this should be a cracking game. The Tigers have toughened up in defense this year and Gareth Ellis continues to provide the type of go forward that Benji and Farah feed off. As for the Roosters Carney and Pearce will be the obvious storyline this week, but if are to win this week it will depend on the Centres and Back Rowers. Shaun Kenny-Dowall has a bad habit of crabbing sideways across the field, particularly if the Ref's are not enforcing a full 10 metres. The Roosters need SKD to run North-South not East-West. Also for all the talk about Carney's ball running skills he needs the threat of the pass to open up the running lanes for himself, often this threat is provided by the great running of Aubusson, who is the most reliable Rooster when it comes to hitting the line at pace and at good angles. This should be an entertaining game, no not necessarily a high-scoring one when you factor in the desperation of Finals. It truly is a coin-toss game, but the threat of upsets should make the Roosters just a tad more desperate and just see them get over the line. (6th placed losers drop out of the finals more often than not due to 7th or 8th placed teams causing an upset)
Prediction - Roosters
Gold Coast vs Warriors
How upset are Channel Nine that the vagaries of the McIntyre system ensured this was the Friday night game. On a scale of One to Ten I would put it at about a Seventy Three. Not only are there no Sydney teams involved, but they get the Gold Coast media market not the much larger Brisbane for the QLD TV ratings. Still this should be a great game. The Titans are a very professional football team, coached well by John Cartwright and have a true star at the most important position on the field in Scott Prince. The Warriors on the other hand rely much more on flair, but unlike in other years this Warriors team is prepared to be patient in the times of the game when they are not on top. In past years the Warriors when they were struggling would get off-load happy and try to force things to happen rather than putting their heads down and grinding it out for 10 minutes. Now they no longer do this and display a lot more professionalism and grit. Still Half-Back remains the most important position on the field and the Titans have the edge at that position so advantage Titans.
Prediction Titans
So all in all this should be an entertaining and closely matched weekend of finals, but don't confuse an even competition with a high quality one. The reason it so even is because every team has been dragged down to the level of the others not forced to raise their standards up to a high level. When you watch the Roosters think about how Chris Flannery could be helping them, when you watch Manly think of the benefit of an Orford, with the Tigers remember we lost Tuqiri's prime to the ARU. There are literally over a hundred other examples (183 players in either Rugby or the Super League at last count), remember this, get angry and dream of an Independent Commission and the end of the Gallop Era.
Sit back and wait for the advertising campaign from the NRL extolling the even nature of the competition and the fact any of the 8 teams can win on the first weekend in October. Obviously the NRL will not talk about the driving force behind the leveling of talent, namely that everyone has been dragged down to a sub-optimal level under the restrictions of the hideously low salary cap. If you are an NRL fan who happened to catch some of the Challenge Cup games from the UK Super League you could not help but feel frustrated. Just in the 2 or 3 games I have seen late on Sundays recently I saw Danny Buderus, Thomas Leului, Chris Flannery, Matt King and Pat Richards. If you think they are washed up veterans who wouldn't have made a difference to the teams in the finals, then you truly are under the Gallop spell.
The Finals Match Ups
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Manly Sea Eagles
What a waste of a Sunday Afternoon game, when the lack of dew and the dry ball usually see us treated to a full expression of the players skills we instead get a game between the most boring team in the competition, Manly, playing the grind it out experts in St George. Seriously is there one thing that excites you about this Manly team, Tony Williams has his moments, but that's where it ends, even their Jerseys are boring. Even though on paper it appears that this is the perfect match up for the Dragons as Manly's middle third only style plays into the St George defensive grinding style there remain potential problems for the Dragons. All this week the talk about choking will start for St George, whilst Manly is a team that contains players who have not only won finals games, they have won the big one. Still if Manly can't win a potential must win game vs the bottom feeding Bulldogs I can't see them beating St George.
Prediction St George
Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders
This game is a game that could either be a dominant Penrith win or yet another 7 v 2 upset. It all boils down to the kick, if it comes off for the Panthers then they should get home easily but if you live by the kicking game then more often than not in big games you die by it. In an average regular season game the kicking game can succeed because it often relies on a bit of laziness in positioning or lack of desperation from the defending team, this laziness can happen in Rd 15 when the players are more worried about where they are getting their Stilnox for the post game Kings Cross atrocity but in the finals when players have just spent the whole week being told that every play matters the kicking game seems to lack impact. For proof of this see the Sydney Roosters in 2008, who like this Penrith team entered the finals scoring most of their tries from kicks and went out in straight sets. The lesson is that in finals you need to be able to create try's through ball movement and precision line running. This does not augur well for the Panthers, particularly as the Raiders are a team with Campese at Five-Eighth that can create try's through good football.
Prediction Raiders
Wests Tigers vs Sydney Roosters
This is shaping up as not only the game of the first week of the finals but maybe the highlight of the whole Finals series. What a shame it will happen on Saturday night, this is a game made for Sunday Afternoon. Benji's flick passes and Carney bullet like 30 metre passes are made for dry weather football. Instead the pressure of finals and the dewy conditions will take some of the potential flair out of the contest. Still this should be a cracking game. The Tigers have toughened up in defense this year and Gareth Ellis continues to provide the type of go forward that Benji and Farah feed off. As for the Roosters Carney and Pearce will be the obvious storyline this week, but if are to win this week it will depend on the Centres and Back Rowers. Shaun Kenny-Dowall has a bad habit of crabbing sideways across the field, particularly if the Ref's are not enforcing a full 10 metres. The Roosters need SKD to run North-South not East-West. Also for all the talk about Carney's ball running skills he needs the threat of the pass to open up the running lanes for himself, often this threat is provided by the great running of Aubusson, who is the most reliable Rooster when it comes to hitting the line at pace and at good angles. This should be an entertaining game, no not necessarily a high-scoring one when you factor in the desperation of Finals. It truly is a coin-toss game, but the threat of upsets should make the Roosters just a tad more desperate and just see them get over the line. (6th placed losers drop out of the finals more often than not due to 7th or 8th placed teams causing an upset)
Prediction - Roosters
Gold Coast vs Warriors
How upset are Channel Nine that the vagaries of the McIntyre system ensured this was the Friday night game. On a scale of One to Ten I would put it at about a Seventy Three. Not only are there no Sydney teams involved, but they get the Gold Coast media market not the much larger Brisbane for the QLD TV ratings. Still this should be a great game. The Titans are a very professional football team, coached well by John Cartwright and have a true star at the most important position on the field in Scott Prince. The Warriors on the other hand rely much more on flair, but unlike in other years this Warriors team is prepared to be patient in the times of the game when they are not on top. In past years the Warriors when they were struggling would get off-load happy and try to force things to happen rather than putting their heads down and grinding it out for 10 minutes. Now they no longer do this and display a lot more professionalism and grit. Still Half-Back remains the most important position on the field and the Titans have the edge at that position so advantage Titans.
Prediction Titans
So all in all this should be an entertaining and closely matched weekend of finals, but don't confuse an even competition with a high quality one. The reason it so even is because every team has been dragged down to the level of the others not forced to raise their standards up to a high level. When you watch the Roosters think about how Chris Flannery could be helping them, when you watch Manly think of the benefit of an Orford, with the Tigers remember we lost Tuqiri's prime to the ARU. There are literally over a hundred other examples (183 players in either Rugby or the Super League at last count), remember this, get angry and dream of an Independent Commission and the end of the Gallop Era.
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