NRL Grand Final Review

Well what a fizzer.

The search for 9 from 9 and the perfect Finals tipping against the spread came crashing to a halt against the brutal efficiency of the Dragons, with a little help from stage fright (Roosters) injury (Phil Graham) and the referee's.

Let me start with the referee's not because I believe they were the determining factor in the result, but because this has not been mentioned elsewhere and even though the final score was 32-8 the refereeing was not a non-factor. Allow me to explain, then I will give the Dragon's the plaudits that there is no doubt they both earned and deserve.

The reason the refereeing blunders matter is not because of their frequency as much as it was their timing. The Roosters knew there only hope of upsetting the minor-premiers (Team the finished on top of the ladder for my non-Australian readers) lay in getting an early lead, it was imperative they did not allow the Dragons to score first and they had to be leading by a minimum of 10 points at the half-time break. Well on the Dragons first real attacking raid, Brett Morris was tackled my Sam Perrett and had both feet planted firmly out of bounds before passing the ball inside to a player who was tackled, then one play later the Try was scored. This was not even close, it wasn't like Morris grazed the Touchline, in fact he was so far over the sideline as he passed the ball it appeared he was about to buy a pie from the Concession stands, it was just a deplorable miss by the Touch Judge, who was right over the top of the incident as it happened. I mean if a Touch Judge is not going to spot that, then really there is little point in him even being there, but the Touch Judges were not done screwing up yet. So the Dragons took an early 6-0 lead but the Roosters hit back with 2 great Try's, though crucially the usually reliable Carney missed both conversion attempts so a potential 12-6 lead was instead a razor thin 8-6 advantage. To prove that every member of the officiating crew was determined to screw up soon after taking the lead the Roosters crossed for another Try by Joseph Leilui in the corner that was ruled back for a forward pass. Replays showed that this too was an incorrect call, of the 5 angles shown by Channel 9 only 1 even indicated the ball MAY have been forward, all the others showed it going backwards and this Try should have stood. If converted this would have been a crucial 8 point advantage and as the stats show, the Dragons have only been able to come back from greater than a converted Try deficit to win twice this season. Finally as the Dragons began to strangle the game and drive home their advantage in the 2nd Half a clear knock on by Dean Young was ruled not have occurred by the always awful Bill Harrigan in the Video Refs Booth and the Dragons gained an insurmountable lead, just as the rain began to tumble down. As I say these things need to be mentioned, but they were not the reason the Roosters lost.

The Dragons were just too good, it was tempting to end that sentence 'on the day', but when looking at the record between these 2 teams over the last 4 years, including the annual marquee Anzac Day encounter it is clear the Dragons just have the Roosters measure at the moment. From the beginning of the game the Dragons just dominated the advantage line, getting quick play the balls in attack and driving the Roosters forwards back in defense. Even with the ridiculous missed call on the 1st Try the Dragons were the dominant team at this point and probably deserved their lead on merit. This was followed by the only 15 minutes of the game where the Roosters really got into the contest. Jarrod Warea-Hargreaves came off the bench and immediately gave the Roosters some punch in the forward contest and won some of the collisions, and this along with some clever dummy-half running by Sam Perrett finally gave Pearce and Carney some room to work in. Two well constructed Try's were the result.

Another part of the Roosters game plan that worked at this stage was their focus on Ben Creagh. Creagh is a damaging and talented ball-runner with the capacity to terrorise teams on the edges. The Roosters came up and in early every time the ball went near Creagh and just bashed him, leading to 3 dropped balls. This was a tactical master stroke by Brian Smith, the only question, Why did the Roosters move away from this tactic in the 2nd half? I can only imagine that Smith was concerned Bennett would instruct the Dragons to use Creagh as a decoy runner only in the 2nd half, but in one of the many fascinating tactical twists in this game, it appears Bennett anticipated that is what Smith would think and instead used Creagh even more in the second half, the Roosters did not re-adjust to go back to the first half strategy and Creagh ended up with the most metres gained of any forward in the game, as I say fascinating strategic machinations were a major part of this game, though with over 1200 First Grade games between the 2 head coaches this is probably not surprising.

So at the half is was 8-6 to the Roosters and as the rain began to tumble down in the 2nd half, so did Dragons points. The middle of the ground turned into a bog after the earlier lower grade finals and the Dragons looked much more willing to get down in the mud and grind than did the Roosters. The rain made it a true war of attrition and this was exactly what this St George team have thrived on for 2 years now. The Roosters then made mistake after mistake after mistake, Anasta who has been a rock all season for the Tri-Colors was awful in the 2nd half with 2 dropped balls early in the tackle count at his own end of the field leading to Dragons Try's in the next set of six. The Dean Young Try that was the back-breaker has it put the Dragons out by 2 converted Try's came soon after an Anasta knock on. The loss of Phil Graham to a pectoral injury was also devastating for the Bondi club. With young Leilui on the left wing in his place, the Dragons fired a lot of plays down that side and the 18 year old made 2 terrible decisions in defense that led directly to Dragons 4 pointers (converted to 6 by Soward on each occasion) I don't want to be too hard on Leilui because the kid is full of potential and will be a great player for many years to come, but he just doesn't have either the experience or the understanding with the equally inexperienced Kane Linnett in the Centers that Graham had. Also Graham would cover for the inexperience of Linnett during the season, but now Linnett had to cover for Leilui and he was not good enough or experienced enough to do it. However, both these players have bright futures, in fact like the rest of this Roosters team, this Grand Final probably came 1 year too early in their development for them to be able to handle the pressure of the occasion.

So congratulations St George, many people are saying this Premiership was the culmination of 2 years work and it was, though you could argue this was the culmination of a decades work, St George should have won a GF in 2005 and probably in one of the years between 2002-04 also but they always came up short in the big games, the Bennett Factor got them home this time and this is a team that as long as it keeps up its motivation will be a powerful contender next year as well along with the Melbourne Storm who will be in full blown eff-you mode after the Salary Cap scandal destroyed this season and the Roosters who will be better for the run and, this being the NRL, there will no doubt be a bolter that we are not even thinking about at the moment who will be part of the conversation come September 2011.

Finally, some discussion of the Pre-Match entertainment put on by the NRL. A colleague of mine made the very good point that the AFL, in yet another example of its million light years lead in professionalism over the NRL administration managed to get Lionel Ritchie on one weeks notice for the replay of the drawn Grand Final after having INXS for the Grand Final that was drawn the week before. The NRL in contrast had You Am I, a good band who had their best years 10 years ago and were nothing more than an indie niche Australian Band even then and the excruciating spectacle that was Jessica Mauboy and Justice Crew. Now this just proves the NRL has no idea what its fan base is, at the Grand Final their marquee event, for Pre-Match entertainment they bring out a girl to sing an awful pop-song about her High Heels, yep that's exactly what the blokey western Sydney audience that comprises the NRL's heartland was after for their Grand Final entertainment, songs about High Heels with the full faux paparazzi entrance, while a bunch of pre-pubescent kids break danced around her and fake polished her high heels. I refuse to believe that any more than 5% of the crowd was enjoying this display. In fact you could feel the energy level in the Stadium lift when You Am I started singing Rolling Stones covers after Mauboy finished. Again, the AFL had INXS, the NRL had a bunch of has-beens singing Rolling Stones covers. Andrew Demetriou, the AFL CEO is an oaf, but NRL CEO David Gallop is so pitiful he allows Demetriou to stride the Australian Sporting scence like an administrative colossus.

Again it is imperative, when and if the independent commission is put in place to run Rugby League ALL POSITIONS MUST BE DECLARED OPEN and applications accepted. Gallop is welcome to apply but he should not be handed the keys to the future of the game like some drunken wealthy legacy kid taking over the family business.

On this note, some final thoughts on the season just gone will follow before the test series starts, lets just say my end of season awards will not look kindly on the individuals running the game.

NRL GRAND FINAL PREVIEW

The Search for 9 for 9

All of you are now well aware of my other wordly gambling performance in the NRL Finals. After the Preliminary Final weekend I am now 8 for 8 and with a big start being given to the Dragons (-6.5) at this time, I get to take my team the Roosters this week, even though I doubt they will win. The Dragons are just not a team built to blow teams off the park. So although there is a Manly 08 risk here, of mind numbingly boring team all of a sudden blows a team off the park on Grand Final day, I feel confident that taking the Roosters will give me 9 from 9.

The Preliminary Final again saw games that were awesome advertisements for the sport of Rugby League. By a complete miracle, Saturday Night even saw a great advertisement for the NRL, a packed stadium in Sydney for a game that was not a Grand Final. Though I would give Channel 9 and both Sydney papers more of the credit for that crowd than David Gallop and the NRL marketing department. Truly was a great sales job by the media this week.

Friday was without doubt the best Roosters performance I have seen for 3 years, possibly longer. The final score was a blowout, but this game was not in the bag until there were 15 minutes left and those first 65 minutes were a true examination of the mental toughness, skill, stamina and desire of both teams. It would be harsh to say that Gold Coast cracked, but the Roosters certainly stayed committed to their game-plan for longer and were the more disciplined team and in the end deserved their victory. In the end this was not a game won by Carney or Pearce as so many tight games have been for the Roosters this year, instead this time it was Anasta who broke the shackles for the Tri-Colours, with an assist by an absolutely awful video ref intervention.

The Key Moment came around the 50-55 minute mark, Anasta took an inside ball from Carney who was then hit by a Titans player just after he passed the ball, Braith saw Carney get hit late and when he was tackled stayed down, definitely feigning injury, even gesturing back towards Carney to give the Video Ref time to review the play. The Video Ref, as is always the case, enforced the letter but not the spirit of the law and the Roosters got a penalty. So tackle 4 on the halfway line, became tackle 1 on the 20 and 2 plays later Anasta himself burst over for a try that put an end to the Titans resistance. Just a smart, veteran play by a player who has grown into a true leader, personally I don't like that sort of gamesmanship, and if Scott Prince had done it I would have whinged about it for approximately 2000 words in this space, but the rules are what they are and as long as this great game continues to be run by Administrators and the referees department while ex-players are ignored you have to exploit any loophole you can before your opponent does.

Speaking of Scott Prince, I went into this game, from a Roosters perspective, terrified of his short kicking game, but the Roosters defence was so overwhelming between the 20 metre lines that he rarely got to put it into effect and was strangely ineffective when he did. From my memory he only forced 2 line drop outs for the game (and yes I am lazy and should go and check the stats, click on my the ads on this site and I will quit my job and have the time to do such things). This truly was an outstanding defensive performance by the Roosters, the question is can they back it up next week, is it possible for a team to put in its best defensive performance in years 2 weeks in a row? that is the key question for NRL fans and the gambling public as we look towards the game this week. Luckily this Dragons team will not ask as many questions of the defence as the Titans were capable of last week. On the other hand they will also be a much sterner obstacle for the Roosters attack to overcome.

What a game that was on Saturday night, the Tigers threw absolutely everything they had at them, but the Dragons just, in the accurate words of Phil Gould "Strangled the life out of the game". Like so many Dragons games this year they just relied on strong defence a solid kick/chase and ball control, its not flashy, they don't really entertain, if you had a choice of watching a cup of room temperature water evaporate or Manly v Dragons, I would be asking what sized cup of water? However, when they play exciting teams like the Tigers, the Raiders or the Roosters then the contrast in styles makes for riveting viewing.

As mentioned in this space last week, Benji was capable of anything in this game, with 'anything' including the good and the bad. There is little doubt the Tigers would have been out of this game well before the 70th minute without Benji on Saturday night, but that does not negate the fact that Benji was responsible for the 2 killer plays in the last 10 minutes. First his kick out on the full was the reason the Dragons had the field position necessary for their winning Field Goal, this was a particularly galling mistake as it was clear at this point of the game that the Dragons were not trying to win the game, but were waiting for just this type of mistake and for the Tigers to lose it and Benji complied. The most frustrating thing about Marshalls mistakes was that just 3 minutes earlier he had launched a 60 metre bomb on Tackle 2 that gave the Tigers great field position themselves and seemed to indicate that Benji understood the importance of playing the game at the other end of the field at the end of the game, to follow this smart play 4 minutes later with the overly ambitious effort that sailed out on the full was as perfect an example of the yin and yang of Benji that you could ever hope to see. After Soward's clinical field goal, Benji then spilled the ball on Tackle 3 on half way and it was basically game over. The Tigers fought to the end and can be proud of their season, they will deserve to be among the favorites next year, but for now its Roosters v Dragons for the Grand Final on Sunday evening.

Phil Gould cops a lot of stick from Rugby League fans, but for all his faults his insight into the game is unmatched, that is why I find it so odd that I disagree with his assessment of what the Roosters should do this week. Gould's theory is that the Roosters should follow the template of the Wests Tigers last week, play for a 12-12 scoreline and hope Pearce and Carney provide the magic at the back end of the game and win that way. Personally I believe this will be playing right into the Dragons hands. You cannot out-grind the ultimate grinding football team.

My view is that the Roosters should chance their hands early in the game, throw the ball wide on Tackle 5, kick for early 40/20's and generally be prepared to take some calculated risks early to try and jump to an early 2 score lead. The Dragons do not chase well, they are 4 from 10 when trailing by a Try this season, the stats for coming back from 2 Try's down are even worse. The Roosters best chance to win this game is get in front and rather than watching the Dragons choke the life out of the game, instead watch the Dragons just choke, as all the doubts built up from 28 years of failure manifest themselves in the opponents psyche. There is merit to the Gould plan, but I strongly believe there is more benefit in taking some risks and going for the jugular early, if the risks fail and they fall a Try behind due to a (Kenny-Dowall??) mistake, then they can switch strategy and go to a grind it out style. The Roosters will be playing this game on a knifes edge, they just cannot, I repeat, absolutely can not afford to fall behind by 2 Try's, because if St George are given a chance to tackle their way to victory for 70 minutes after taking an early 2 Try lead, then they will happily take the offer, go with one out running, complete all their sets and defend their way to the Premiership.

Anyway your 8 from 8 gambling maestro will now give you some Pre-Grand Final gambling tips for the key gambling options.

Clive Churchill Medal Winner

Braith Anasta - Roosters

I could have taken the easy option here and gone for Carney or Pearce, but Clive Churchill medals are often won by back rowers (props rarely play enough minutes to please the voters) and Anasta will give you a Back Row tackle count with a halves style impact on the passing and kicking game.

Ben Hornby - Dragons

Hornby is a massively under-rated member of the Dragons outfit, if the Dragons win by a small margin then I can see Ben being involved in the key plays that give them victory.

First Try Scorer

Kane Linnett - Roosters

You will get good odds for this pick, probably in the $14 range, Carney and Pearce both do their best work on the edges, and with the desperation that the Dragons defence shows at all times I can just see Carney bursting through a hole, being dragged down and offloading to a Centre of Back Rower, I'm going with Linnett only because he fits that option but also he has genuine pace, so if this scenario doesn't play out he is the most likely Rooster to go the length of the field.

Dean Young - Dragons

The Roosters marker defence can be sloppy at times and I can just picture Young burrowing over from Dummy Half late in the first half.

Finally my drive for an unprecedented 9 for 9 Finals Series against the spread.

You know I'm going Roosters regardless if you read last weeks column where I excoriated any fan who dares tip against their own team, but I am very happy that they are being given a 6.5 start by the bookies. So again, like last week I just don't see the Dragons being a team that can blow a team off the park, so the 6.5 start makes no sense to me and I will gladly take the points.

Lets hope for a cracking Grand Final, this finals series deserves it, but most of all lets hope for a Roosters win!!! (I make no apologies for my bias at this point, any true fan knows the joy of your team being in a Grand Final, well that is any true fan who is not a fan of Cronulla)